Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Per Capita National Olympic Performance

Standard Olympic medal standings neglect obvious comparative inequities. The most glaring of these are vast differences in national populations. Per capita, the US ranks only #35 in medal performance and China ranks only #53. China's 39 gold medals -- 21% of the Olympic total -- are impressive until you realize that China also has 20% of the world's population. Its 15% take of total medals is considerably less than its share of world population, even though it has all the advantages of being the home country (and may well have cheated).

Per-capita, Jamaica, Slovenia and Estonia are #1, 2 and 3 although given that a single medal puts them in or takes them out of the top ten, these positions are not in a sense statistically significant. Among overall medal leader, no country is close to Australia (#4) which has more than 6 times as many medals per capita as the US, and nearly 30 times as many medals per capita as China.

Moreover, these figures may understate smaller nation performance. Many US and Chinese medals come from "team" events, in which small countries are at an extreme disadvantage.

Rank Country Gold medals Silver medals Bronze medals 4-2-1 points pop (mil)
Gold medals /mil Tot medals /mil 421 points /mil
1 Jamaica 2 3 0 14 3 .737 1.84 5.16
2 Slovenia 1 2 2 10 2 .493 2.46 4.93
3 Estonia 1 1 0 6 1 .746 1.49 4.48
4 Australia 11 12 12 80 21 .514 1.64 3.74
5 New Zealand 2 1 3 13 4 .468 1.40 3.04
6 Slovakia 3 1 0 14 5 .555 .74 2.59
7 Denmark 2 1 3 13 5 .364 1.09 2.37
8 Mongolia 1 1 0 6 3 .380 .76 2.28
9 Norway 1 2 2 10 5 .209 1.05 2.09
10 Georgia 2 0 1 9 4 .455 .68 2.05
11 Netherlands 4 5 4 30 16 .243 .79 1.82
12 Belarus 1 3 7 17 10 .103 1.14 1.75
13 Cuba 1 5 5 19 11 .089 .98 1.69
14 Armenia 0 0 5 5 3 .000 1.67 1.67
15 Trinidad and Tobago 0 1 0 2 1 .000 .75 1.50
16 Great Britain 16 9 8 90 61 .264 .54 1.49
17 Switzerland 2 0 3 11 8 .262 .65 1.44
18 Czech Republic 2 3 0 14 10 .192 .48 1.35
19 Finland 1 1 1 7 5 .188 0.56 1.32
20 South Korea 8 10 6 58 48 .166 .50 1.20
21 Panama 1 0 0 4 3 .299 .30 1.20
22 Lithuania 0 1 2 4 3 .000 .89 1.19
23 Azerbaijan 1 2 2 10 8 .118 0.59 1.18
24 Bulgaria 1 1 2 8 8 .131 .52 1.05
25 Romania 4 1 3 21 21 .187 .37 .98
26 Kazakhstan 1 3 4 14 15 .065 .52 .91
27 Hungary 0 4 1 9 10 .000 .50 .90
28 Germany 11 8 9 69 82 .134 .34 .84
29 France 4 11 14 52 64 .062 .45 .81
30 Ukraine 5 4 8 36 46 .109 .37 .78
31 Canada 2 6 5 25 33 .060 0.39 .75
32 Zimbabwe 1 3 0 10 13 .075 .30 .75
33 Italy 6 6 7 43 60 .101 .32 .72
34 Croatia 0 1 1 3 5 .000 .44 .66
35 Sweden 0 3 0 6 9 .000 .33 .65
36 Russia 10 14 18 86 142 .070 .30 .61
37 United States 26 26 27 183 305 .085 .26 .60
38 North Korea 2 1 4 14 24 .084 .29 .59
39 Kyrgyzstan 0 1 1 3 5 .000 .38 .56
40 Poland 3 4 1 21 38 .079 .21 .55
41 Austria 0 1 2 4 8 .000 .36 .48
42 Spain 3 4 2 22 46 .065 .20 .48
43 Latvia 0 0 1 1 2 .000 .44 .44
44 Singapore 0 1 0 2 5 .000 .22 .44
45 Kenya 2 3 2 16 38 .053 .19 .43
46 Japan 8 6 8 52 128 .063 .17 .41
47 Tunisia 1 0 0 4 10 .097 .10 .39
48 Greece 0 1 2 4 11 .000 .27 .36
49 Serbia 0 1 1 3 10 .000 .20 .30
50 Cameroon 1 0 0 4 19 .054 .05 .22
51 Portugal 0 1 0 2 11 .000 .09 .19
52 Uzbekistan 0 1 3 5 27 .000 .15 .18
53 China 43 14 19 219 1,326 .032 .06 .17
54 Togo 0 0 1 1 7 .000 .15 .15
55 Ecuador 0 1 0 2 13 .000 .07 .15
56 Tajikistan 0 0 1 1 7 .000 .15 .15
57 Ethiopia 2 1 0 10 79 .025 .04 .13
58 Argentina 1 0 1 5 40 .025 .05 .12
59 Chile 0 1 0 2 17 .000 .06 .12
60 Algeria 0 1 1 3 34 .000 .06 .09
61 Chinese Taipei 0 0 2 2 23 .000 .09 .09
62 Malaysaia 0 1 0 2 27 .000 .04 .07
63 Turkey 0 2 1 5 71 .000 .04 .07
64 Colombia 0 1 1 3 45 .000 .04 .07
65 Thailand 1 0 0 4 64 .016 .02 .06
66 Brazil 1 0 5 9 187 .005 .03 .05
67 South Africa 0 1 0 2 48 .000 .02 .04
68 Indonesia 1 1 3 9 232 .004 .02 .04
69 Morocco 0 0 1 1 31 .000 .03 .03
70 Vietnam 0 1 0 2 87 .000 .01 .02
71 Iran 0 0 1 1 70 .000 .01 .01
72 Egypt 0 0 1 1 75 .000 .01 .01
73 Mexico 0 0 1 1 107 .000 .01 .01
74 India 1 0 0 4 1,137 .001 .00 .00
231 Totals 204 205 231 1457 6,671 .031 .10 .22

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

nice list. you don't need total medals though. Makes the table more complicated. it's easy to add up G+S+B.

Steve Freeman said...

Thanks for the suggestion. I updated it now.

Anonymous said...

An additional consideration is that team sports earn but a single medal, but involve many individuals over many matches. Perhaps it would make sense to weight team sports to reflect the comparatively greater achievement of winning the Olympic basketball gold vs winning a gold in an individual event.
Differences between sports also need to be considered. For instance, gymnastics awards medals for the all around, team, in additional to medals in the individual events that make them. This is comparable to awarding Phelps a 9th gold medal for being all-around best swimmer, and a 10th for being part of the highest all-around scoring national swim team.