Inequitable NCAA Tournament Brackets -- Seeding by AP Rank

One of the few things the 2011 NCAA tournament selection committee got right about seeding is that the top four seeds in each bracket do correspond with the AP top sixteen. But the assignments are hardly equitable. The West (not the East as has been widely decried) is the toughest. The East and Southwest, though, are not too far behind. The Southeast region, however, is bizarrely out-of whack -- absurdly less challenging.

In Table 1, I've listed AP rank and points; these ranks and points are placed in column groups to the right corresponding to NCAA tournament region. If the regional brackets were equal, the sum of the AP ranks would be roughly equal, but as indicated in the bottom rows, they're far from it. West ranks accumulate to 25½, far, far, below the Southeast's 45 cumulative. AP points is a more nuanced indicator of cumulative perceived strength because it accounts for differentials between ranks (120 voting points separate #7 and #8; only 6 separate #11 and #12). But, still the West is the toughest, and the Southeast, by far the easiest.

Table	AP		wins-	AP	Region					AP Rank					AP Points
1	rank		losses	pts	west	sw	se	east		west	sw	se	east		west	sw	se	east
---	1	Ohio State (51)	32-2	1,611				1					1					1,611
	2	Kansas (14)	32-2	1,574		1					2					1,574
AP	3	Duke	30-4	1,472	1					3					1,472
rank	4	Pittsburgh	27-5	1,406			1					4					1,406
vs.	5½	Notre Dame	26-6	1,332		2					5.5					1,332
bracket	5½	San Diego State	32-2	1,322	2					5.5					1,322
and	7	North Carolina	26-7	1,189				2					7					1,189
seed	8	Texas	27-7	1,069	4					8					1,069
	9	Connecticut	26-9	1,019	3					9					1,019
	10	Brigham Young U	30-4	977			3					10					977
	11	Kentucky	25-8	928				4					11					928
	12	Syracuse	26-7	922				3					12					922
	13	Purdue	25-7	903		3					13					903
	14	Louisville	25-9	874		4					14					874
	15	Florida	26-7	840			2					15					840
	16	Wisconsin	23-8	619			4					16					619
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		West Region Total ............................................								25½					4,882
		Southwest Region ............................................									34½					4,683
		Southeast Region ............................................										45					3,842
		East Region Total ............................................											31					4,650

The differential between West and Southeast is considerably worse yet when you look at the top 5 seeds with Arizona (#17, 516 pts) in the West and Kansas State (#21, 240pts) in the Southeast.

The top seven seeds are worth considering because this year, there's a sharp break in the AP voting between Cincinatti (#28, 115 pts) and Old Dominion (#29, 65 pts). Twenty-seven of the 28 #1-7 seeds are in the AP top 28. The exception is UCLA (#42, 3 pts), while Utah State, #19 overall, received only a #12 seed -- the standard non-major conference bias. Why UCLA was deemed worthy of a #7 seed is anyone's guess, but rather than put them in their natural West region, where they could balance an otherwise tough field, they've been placed in the Southeast in the same absurdly weak Southeast sub-bracket.

The Southeast region is especially weak in the lower half of the bracket. It would seem as though the committee was trying to rig a trip to the elite 8 for Florida. The two most outlandish high seeds of the tournament are #7 UCLA and #2 Florida and they'll play each other in the round of 32. in the round of 16, they'll face-off against whoever emerges from the tournament's version of the Paralympics, the sub-bracket of Brigham Young (#3) without their starting center and 2nd best player (dismissed for having had sex) is not remotely a top 10 team, and St. John's (#6) likewise crippled from the loss of their top player.